All Weather Portfolio (Ray Dalio’s All Seasons)
The simplified All Weather portfolio Ray Dalio gave Tony Robbins for Money: Master the Game, often called All Seasons. It holds 30% US stocks, 40% long-term Treasuries, 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities, rebalanced once a year, so that no single economic environment dominates its risk.
Designed by Ray Dalio and Tony Robbins, 2014. Implemented and tracked by Tactfolio.
| Feb 2006 – Sep 2026 | Strategy | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | 6.3% | 11.2% |
| Worst drawdown | -23.8% | -55.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| Volatility | 8.0% | 19.2% |
| Annual return since publication (Dec 2014) | 5.5% | 13.7% |
| Apr 1968 – Sep 2026 | Strategy | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | 8.9% | 10.8% |
| Worst drawdown | -23.8% | -55.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.13 | 0.69 |
| Volatility | 7.8% | 17.1% |
| Annual return since publication (Dec 2014) | 5.5% | 13.7% |
The All Weather Portfolio, also called the All Seasons Portfolio, is the simplified version of Bridgewater's All Weather approach that Ray Dalio gave Tony Robbins for his 2014 book Money: Master the Game. It holds five fixed slices, 30% stocks, 55% Treasuries, and 15% gold and commodities, and is rebalanced once a year.
The idea#
Dalio starts from the view that nobody can reliably predict the economy. What moves asset prices is whether growth and inflation come in above or below expectations, which gives four possible environments. Stocks do well when growth surprises upward, Treasuries when growth or inflation disappoint, and gold and commodities when inflation surprises upward.
The portfolio tries to give each environment a similar share of the risk rather than a similar share of the money. Because stocks swing far more than bonds, balancing risk means holding much more in bonds, and choosing long-term Treasuries, whose prices move enough to offset stock losses. Bridgewater first ran the approach in 1996, for Dalio's family trust, and uses leverage to reach its target risk; the Robbins version is unleveraged and simple enough to run with a handful of index funds.
How it works#
The portfolio holds five fixed weights:
- 30% US stocks (VTI)
- 40% long-term Treasuries, 20 years and longer (TLT)
- 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7–10 years (IEF)
- 7.5% gold (GLD)
- 7.5% commodities (DBC)
At the close of the last trading day of each year, all five are reset to their target weights.
What the backtest shows#
Over the ETF era, from early 2006, All Weather was far calmer than the S&P 500, with less than half its volatility and a worst drawdown of about 24% against 55%. It also returned much less, about 6% a year against 11%, and less than a 60/40 portfolio's 8%. Its risk-adjusted return was about the same as the 60/40's.
It did its job in 2008, gaining 3% while the S&P 500 lost 37%, and gained 17% in 2011, when stocks were flat. The cost showed in strong stock years: it gained about 1% in 2013, when the S&P 500 rose 32%.
Its heavy bond weight made 2022 its worst year. As interest rates rose, long Treasuries fell sharply alongside stocks, and it lost 19%, slightly more than the S&P 500. That drawdown ran from November 2021 to October 2022 and took until August 2025 to recover. Since the book came out it has returned about 5.5% a year.
With simulated history the test starts in 1968 and returns near 9% a year, with a risk-adjusted return well above the S&P 500's. It gained in 1973 and 1974 while stocks fell hard, and the 2022 loss remains its worst. Before 1980 the simulation uses gold for the commodity slice, because its commodity index series starts then.
When it struggles#
- Rising interest rates. More than half the portfolio is in Treasuries, and long bonds lose the most when rates climb, as in 2022.
- Stock and bond losses together. Its balance depends on stocks and bonds moving in opposite directions, which failed in 2022.
- Strong bull markets. With only 30% in stocks, it trails badly when stocks surge.
Using it on Tactfolio#
The live strategy above holds these five ETFs and rebalances at each year end. Copy it to try quarterly rebalancing, a different commodity fund, or compare it with Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly.
Year by year
| Year | Strategy | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 4.5% | 14.0% |
| 2025 | 13.4% | 17.7% |
| 2024 | 6.0% | 24.9% |
| 2023 | 10.0% | 26.2% |
| 2022 | -19.2% | -18.2% |
| 2021 | 8.2% | 28.7% |
| 2020 | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| 2019 | 18.3% | 31.2% |
| 2018 | -3.1% | -4.6% |
| 2017 | 11.7% | 21.7% |
| 2016 | 6.5% | 12.0% |
| 2015 | -3.3% | 1.2% |
| 2014 | 13.8% | 13.5% |
| 2013 | 1.1% | 32.3% |
| 2012 | 7.2% | 16.0% |
| 2011 | 16.8% | 1.9% |
| 2010 | 13.3% | 15.1% |
| 2009 | 2.0% | 26.4% |
| 2008 | 3.1% | -36.8% |
| 2007 | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| 2006* | -0.1% | 13.9% |
| Year | Strategy | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 4.5% | 14.0% |
| 2025 | 13.4% | 17.7% |
| 2024 | 6.0% | 24.9% |
| 2023 | 10.0% | 26.2% |
| 2022 | -19.2% | -18.2% |
| 2021 | 8.2% | 28.7% |
| 2020 | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| 2019 | 18.3% | 31.2% |
| 2018 | -3.1% | -4.6% |
| 2017 | 11.7% | 21.7% |
| 2016 | 6.5% | 12.0% |
| 2015 | -3.3% | 1.2% |
| 2014 | 13.8% | 13.5% |
| 2013 | 1.1% | 32.3% |
| 2012 | 7.2% | 16.0% |
| 2011 | 16.8% | 1.9% |
| 2010 | 13.3% | 15.1% |
| 2009 | 2.0% | 26.4% |
| 2008 | 3.1% | -36.8% |
| 2007 | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| 2006 | 7.4% | 15.8% |
| 2005 | 9.3% | 4.8% |
| 2004 | 9.9% | 10.7% |
| 2003 | 14.0% | 28.2% |
| 2002 | 6.6% | -21.6% |
| 2001 | -3.0% | -11.8% |
| 2000 | 11.5% | -9.7% |
| 1999 | 5.0% | 20.4% |
| 1998 | 13.1% | 28.7% |
| 1997 | 15.6% | 33.5% |
| 1996 | 8.1% | 22.5% |
| 1995 | 29.8% | 38.0% |
| 1994 | -4.7% | 0.4% |
| 1993 | 13.8% | 9.7% |
| 1992 | 7.1% | 7.6% |
| 1991 | 19.8% | 30.3% |
| 1990 | 3.8% | -3.2% |
| 1989 | 22.3% | 31.5% |
| 1988 | 11.1% | 16.4% |
| 1987 | 1.4% | 5.1% |
| 1986 | 22.3% | 18.6% |
| 1985 | 29.5% | 31.6% |
| 1984 | 8.5% | 6.2% |
| 1983 | 7.1% | 22.4% |
| 1982 | 32.7% | 21.6% |
| 1981 | -4.4% | -4.9% |
| 1980 | 10.2% | 32.4% |
| 1979 | 24.4% | 18.3% |
| 1978 | 7.3% | 6.5% |
| 1977 | 2.1% | -7.2% |
| 1976 | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| 1975 | 11.5% | 37.1% |
| 1974 | 3.0% | -26.5% |
| 1973 | 2.1% | -14.7% |
| 1972 | 15.2% | 18.9% |
| 1971 | 13.8% | 14.1% |
| 1970 | 9.0% | 3.9% |
| 1969 | -8.3% | -8.4% |
| 1968* | -0.1% | 14.6% |
* Partial year.
The rules as implemented
This is the exact tree Tactfolio runs, rebalanced yearly with signals and trades at the close. Open it to inspect or copy it.
- StrategyDalio All Weather (All Seasons)
- WeightSpecified
- TickerVTI30%
- TickerTLT40%
- TickerIEF15%
- TickerGLD7.5%
- TickerDBC7.5%
- WeightSpecified
Sources and caveats
- Tony Robbins, MONEY: Master the Game (Simon & Schuster, 2014), the All Seasons portfolio from Ray Dalio
- Bridgewater Associates, The All Weather Story
- Portfolio Charts, All Seasons Portfolio
- ETFs stand in for the book's asset classes: VTI for US stocks, TLT for long-term (20+ year) Treasuries, IEF for intermediate (7–10 year) Treasuries, GLD for gold, and DBC for commodities.
- The book asks for periodic rebalancing without a fixed schedule; this version rebalances once a year, as Portfolio Charts assumes.
- Rebalancing happens at the close of the last trading day of each year.
Common questions#
What is the All Weather Portfolio?#
It is a fixed mix of 30% stocks, 40% long-term Treasuries, 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities. Ray Dalio described it to Tony Robbins as a simple version of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy, designed to hold up in any economic environment.
What ETFs are used for the All Weather Portfolio?#
This version uses VTI, TLT, IEF, GLD, and DBC. Any low-cost funds covering the same five asset classes would work in a similar way.
How is the All Weather Portfolio different from Bridgewater's All Weather fund?#
Bridgewater's fund uses leverage, inflation-linked bonds, and a wider range of markets. The Robbins version is a fixed, unleveraged five-fund mix.
Does the All Weather Portfolio still work?#
It still cushions stock crashes, as in 2008, but when rates rose in 2022 it lost slightly more than the S&P 500, the deepest decline of its whole test. Since 2014 it has returned about 5.5% a year. The live record on Tactfolio shows how it is doing now.